Monday, November 03, 2014

Voters are dumb! My predictions locally.

A recent survey in California showed that only 42% of the voters know that Jerry Brown is running for another term. Not only that, but only 1 out of 5 could name his Republican opponent Neel Kashkari! Wow. What is the problem? Apathy? Got me, but below is my fearless predictions for some of the local election results. (No science for the most part, although I have been working on Measure "S". And this is not an endorsement for any item. Observations from the peanut gallery only.)

Eureka City Council: Natalie Arroyo over Chet Albin and Mike Newman over Kim Bergel. Natalie has had a strong phonebanking campaign and dominated the debates. Mike Newman has been very active attending community events over the last 4 years and has worked very hard in his first term. I don't always agree with him, but he is always respectful.

Arcata City Council: Sofia Pereira and Mark Wheetley. For the 2 year terms. Both very knowledgeable politically. Be a huge surprise if they didn't win. For the 2 year term I think Paul Pitino will prevail. Great guy and former Arcata City Councilman. Passionate over Transportation issues.

Measure P: I think this will pass. Lots of good arguments both ways.

Measure Q: I am kinda shocked, but I think this will pass. If I lived in Eureka, I would vote against. There had been some questionable spending the last few years. But the Measure Q team has done a good job with this campaign.

Measure R: I predict it will pass, but not in the overwhelming fashion I thought it would. The "No" on R has come on strong, but way too late.

Measure S: The phone banking results seem to show it will pass with over 60%. But that 5% fudge factor could go the wrong way. But the GOTV strategy for the Measure "S" team tomorrow should carry the measure over the top.

Measure Z: From all the people I have talked to this measure should fail miserably. No clear and concise message and just a way late start to the campaign. If I am wrong here I will probably have to quit my election predictions.

Again, no science. Just in fun.


Anonymous said...

I hope Natalie & Mike win seats on the Council. They will be getting my vote!

Fred Mangels said...

I don't make election predictions. I do find others' predictions interesting sometimes, though.

I was surprised that a guy I know- Green Party lefty who opposes Measure R- believes R will fail big time. He predicted it fails 60/40, or thereabouts. I'm not sure about that, but we shall see.

samoasoftball said...

I was wrong big time on "R" and "Z". Look to be right on the others. Not bad.

Stu said...

More taxes and bonds. When will it stop?