Just two days to go and I have heard enough scuttlebutt to give my two cents on the Humboldt major metropolis area council elections:
Arcata:
Alex Stillmann dominates with 35% of the vote. Am I the only one who remembers how radically Liberal she seemed in the 70’s? Thirty years later? Now, she is a middle of the road Democrat endorsed by the old guard. She gets the good old days vote.
Dave Meserve with 23% barely ekes by Mark Wheetley and Michael Winkler. Dave has not shied away from being High Profile on his personal beliefs on the war and this current administration. He is a brave leader. He helped my leading workers in the 90’s to better wages and working conditions not with words, but by action. I hope I am right.
Eureka:
Mike Jones is going to win by around 8%. Nan had a great crew out there for her cause. I am a personal friend of Mike, but I do sympathize with Nan’s cause for welfare to work people in the district. She is a 30 year union employee and I think she should have made this more public.
Larry Glass is going to sneak by Mary Beth by 4%. Larry has too many of us that have done business and have had positive experiences with him. I have seen signs and support from Republicans that know Larry! He is one of Eureka’s personalities that we all know. It was just a matter of time that he ran for public office. Yes, Larry is opinionated. But he likes dialogue from all sides. It is not a testimony against Mary Beth; it is just local history of Larry Glass.
Ron Kuhnel is going to pull a huge upset by 2%. Jeff Leonard was going to win this going away early in this campaign. OK. Ron is very smart. But he way personable also. And every person he talks to is walking testimony of his agenda. I really like Jeff and what he has done on the council, but he is running against a really good opponent.
And these are just projections from what I have heard. From Both sides of the political spectrum. Gripe after the election.
4 minutes ago
74 comments:
Nan really could take it Richard,her campaign team has running hard these last few days.I hit a lot of 1's and 2's today,and I think her teams final push at getting out the vote could payoff bigtime.The whole crew of walkers were out today,and quite a few calls were made at the headquarters.Nan is very confident and relaxed,and looks better now than she has throughout the campign.Don't be surprised to see Nan pull it off.
I meant been running hard.
I truly believe the left wing is going to have it's day in this election.
And the only reason is because they are a much more motivated voting block. They are well organized. Since there are no real ardent right wingers involved in the race, the moderate incumbents are going to possibly hold on only due to local name recognition.
The sad truth that lies underneath is the conservative working class not voting. (I'm not talking Neocons)
You would not believe how many average hard working everyday Eurekans just don't bother to vote. They have no time or use for politics in their life. They don't read any local newspapers, except for the sports section to check up on their kids' team stats, so they don't have a clue as to who the local political players are. They know the name Arkley. They don't have a clue who Larry Evans or Kaitlin Socopi-Belknap or Chris Crawford or Richard Salzman or Brian Morrissey or even who Bonnie Neely really is. They are complacent citizens who understand that they are barely holding on to their jobs and that their kids are having to move away, but not enough to understand politics or really care.
I do blame it on rash consumerism, a lack of civic volunteerism and no interest in understanding the economics of the area. They are good people. Just hopelessly uninformed.
I hope they prove me wrong.
I will vote for Nancy Flemming, Mike Jones, Jeff Leonard, Mary Beth Wolford and Virginia Bass.
I hope my peers come out and vote period.
8:25am-That is really nailing it with truth. Pretty much sums up this election.
anon 8:25 - Normally I'd agree with you, but some of those leftists aren't necessarily voting the party line. You'd be surprised at how many very liberal people really like Jeff Leonard despite his 10/04 stunt. For example, Mark Lovelace had very good things to say about him.
So while it's true that the left of Eureka may tend to dominate the vote, there's no guarantee they're all going to vote the same way.
Nothing about these numbers should give anyone over-confidence. Mud against the wall. No polls, just my own lottery numbers:
Neely 54, Flemming 46
LaVallee 49, Bass 45, Droz 6
Glass 55, Wolford 40, Wilburn 5
Kuhnel 52, Leonard 48
Abrams 55, Jones 45
I think you may be wrong Richard. The votes may be even closer than you think but the outcome will be Leonard, Jones, and Mary Beth Wolford. Just dropped off my absentee ballot and by the looks on other people's faces (relief!)...I would say the turnout overall is going to be better than past elections, but people are jazzed to vote for something that matters this time.
The powers that be making the Balloon Track a center election issue really motivated people to mark their ballots-check with county elections to get the new numbers for absentees already turned in to check me!
Reading this blog about election predictions is about as tiresome as listening to the hype leading up to the Super Bowl. The so called experts hype it up for weeks leading up to the game and give us their opinions as to who will win the game and why. Enough talk and predictions. Let's go out and vote and see what happens, and then let's move forward as best we can after the election.
11:50am- ah, you are no fun! C'mon, who are your picks!
Richard, you dont mention Virginia in your prediction. Based upon how you feel the Council races are going, doesnt it seem logical that LaVallee will eke out a victory over Virginia?
If not, and you feel Virginia will pull it out, I'd like to hear your reasoning.
Myself, I think the anti marina slate will pull out the election, as that base seems to be waaaayyy more motivated than the conservative to moderate base.
12:09 - As a progressive, I'd love to believe you, but statewide progressives are very uninspired by the lack of a strong candidate at the top of the ticket. Not that conservatives are particularly inspired.
Bass-56
LaVallee-42
Droz-2
Wolford-48
Glass-44
Wilburn-8
Leonard-51
Kuhnel-49
Jones-52
Abrams-48
Flemming-55
Neely-45
Neely/Flemming - Neely by 4%
LaValllee/Bass - Bass by 2%
Jones/Abrams - Jones by 10%
Glass/Wolford - Wolford by 3%
Kuhnel/Leonard - Leonard by 15%
SJH
1:28pm is going to be so far off!
1:28 must be Rich Mostranski.Wishful thinking is good though.
Somewhere around 9-10 pm tomorrow night we will all know which direction our beloved city will be moving: forward or backwards.
Somewhere around 9-10 pm tomorrow night we will all know which direction our beloved city will be moving: forward or backwards.
Hypothetical situation - Glass, Kuhnel, Bass, and Jones win. Would that be forward or backward?
Eric,that would be forward.If that happens that means Virginia has successfully recalled herself from her council seat,giving up her council voting priviledges,and put herself into a lame duck mayor situation which ironically has held Peter Lavallee back during his term.And having a special election to fill the vacant seat will satisfy all bloggers who can't get enough of election fever.
1:28 is not Mostranski. If I say something my name goes behind it, not like others on this blog and other blogs. and yes, of course i predict Flemming to win!!
I think the entire dream team is going to get in. Only doubt is Lavallee and Abrams
Neely 58, Flemming 42
LaVallee (win) 49, Bass 49, Droz 2
Glass 55, Wolford 43, Wilburn 2
Kuhnel 52, Leonard 48
Abrams 51, Jones 49
Well, my prediction is Neely, Glass, and Kuhnel for the good guys, and Bass and Jones for the dark side. But it's not based on anything scientific.
RMostranski said...
1:28 is not Mostranski. If I say something my name goes behind it, not like others on this blog and other blogs. and yes, of course i predict Flemming to win!!
2:57 PM
Of COURSE, Mostranki, we all know that. It's because your so, you know, Sexie.
I do hope that regular folks get out to vote. As opposed to Richard I think Glass is a snake, he's alrleady sold his soul to some unknown people in Petrolia and Ken Miller, the rabid cop hating loon.
The dream team will be a nightmare for Eureka. I will really be happy when the election is over but I am fearful that Glass, Abrams, and Kuhnel will win? That will be three steps back and five steps down.
I think Jeff Swartz will take it in Arcata. He's so smart and has such good ideas people will write still vote for him. Afterall he is a crime fighter.
What's charming about a guy who says the issues are "way over Leonard's head"....was that a short joke or just being a pompous jerk?...hmmmm, either way he was being a pompous jerk.
There is no way Kuhnel beats Jeff Leonard. You are totally "misunderestimating" Jeff's base. As for Wohlford, Bass and Jones I believe Jones will win going away and Wilburn will spoil it for Glass. The Bass LaValley race is about even. Less than 100 votes and I hope it's Bass who comes up the winner.
The thing you are not factoring in is the overwhelming support for the Marina District. It is a motivator and proponents will turn out in droves to support the incumbents.
There is a massive GOTV for the incumbents and thousands who just vote for incumbents. In a political campaign you have to talk to everyone, not just sing to the choir you already know. So hitting a few houses doesn't tell the story.
Leonard, Bass, Wolford and Jones are at Chamber mixers, speaking to service clubs, and a hundrend other charitable causes, like the fundraiser for St. Bernards. Where were the Salzman/Kerrigan candidates? Not one has been seen except walking the streets. (true, La Valley has hit a couple events, but not many) ALL the candidates are walking, but you add in the other stuff and who has pressed more flesh?....the guys who are involved in the community.
Something to think about when you make predictions.
P.S. Did you happen to see the wretched turnout for the "Meet Ron Kuhnel" night....not a good sign if a campaign is on the move.
"Leonard, Bass, Wolford and Jones are at Chamber mixers, speaking to service clubs, and a hundrend other charitable causes, like the fundraiser for St. Bernards. Where were the Salzman/Kerrigan candidates?"
Very Good Point!
So how bad was the turnout?
Had to work today from 7am to 7pm. I did not give a take on Virginia's or Nancy and Bonnie's races because I have a vested interest so I would be seen as prejudice. I would put money on my other predictions. Polls from both sides are pretty well agreeing. Show me the money!
I am pretty worried the dream team will win, even though Im liberal. I do hope Kuhnel wins and Lavallee. The others Im not so sure. I dont like a completely anti-development slate winning complete control of the council, but if the past election is any indicator I would say the dream team has had the advantage all along.If they do win, my hope is that they arnt obstructionist but allow the development to go ahead on the tract but hold SN to their word about the housing and environmental benefits, since SN has already proven to be completely shifty and not exactly honest.
7:53
Maybe 15-20 after promoting it in the newspaper for a week and having the Marquee up for about a week. Not a good sign.
Another little known fact...Kuhnel did not show for his much touted Alder Bay visit. He had the press there but apparently forgot...showed up an hour late (after the press left) and demanded to be let in. (car trouble...yeah, right, guy has no friends, doesn't know how to phone for a taxi?) Not too charming.
Leonard was there (no press)a couple of weeks before, just prior to the absentee ballots being sent out. Of course, they loved him.
Who got the votes do you think?
That's what campaigns are about: getting the votes. Speculation based on some guy's qualifications on paper and running into him walking the streets are not good prognostic tools. It works if both candidates are unknown, but running against an incumbent is a whole different kettle of fish.
If you don't excite the electorate, you ain't gonna win. You have to have more than dirty tricks and political stunts up your sleeve. Who has excited people more, the guy whose donation list is very long with small donations or the guy who has a few very large donations and a giant loan to himself??
My read is the lefties have forgotten that Dikeman, probably one of the most difficult people to like on the planet, actually won Eureka by a 4 or 5 point margin.
Does that sound like Eureka leans left? You progressives have to get out more....you don't win the day by talking to the 250 insiders who tell you it's going "swell".
Anyway, we will know in about 24 hours. Maybe I am all wet, but I have been at the campaign thing for about 35 years. My money is on the incumbents and Bass....the LaValley to Kerrigan show has gotten too transparent. You have noticed how Chris has moved to the center, right? What do you suppose he has figured out that the rest of you progressive optimists are having trouble seeing??
Just food for thought, my friends. If you work enough campaigns and get rid of the egos, the best campaigns are those run by the folks and not consultants.
Case in point was the Eureka Reporter today....the Leonard insert was smashing....much better than all those hit and miss expensive TV ads the challengers are doing, or the glossy brochures or knocking on a few hundred doors.
Word to the Local Solutions slate re: Abrams....you don't take a scarey candidate and exploit her on Television. To Kuhnel, you don't tell Eurekans your family has been here for "generations". Real Eurekans know better...and for heaven's sakes don't use "politician" as your "lead in" a la LaValley. Geez, which of the two wizards in charge of his campaign came up with that??
Overall, Glass has had the best television and radio ads of the Local solutions slate. Will it win the day?...maybe, but there are thousands of folks out there and you can't get to every door so "incumbent" becomes very important when a person gets in the voting booth.
Sorry if you dozed off, but I don't think many of you have a clue about winning an election. Just had to add my $1.50 to this discussion.
9:13pm You sounded almost credible until.....the anonymous thing. Platitudes spoken without recourse. I have witnessed the left side restructure in mid campaign and focus on door knocking and phonebanking. We will see if this worked last minute. The money for all candidates was pretty close. We shall see tomorrow.
6:31, I see we agree on one thing--nothing but fun.
I will have to say that everybody has a wonderful take on the elections----but, do we move forward is the question??
My read is the lefties have forgotten that Dikeman, probably one of the most difficult people to like on the planet, actually won Eureka by a 4 or 5 point margin.
Not according to James Faulk's article on how we voted. According to the article, Gallegos received 3411 votes in Eureka while Gallegos received 2981. And Measure T passed in Eureka with 3339 yes to 2889 no.
Was Faulk in error?
10:52
Eureka Ca
registered voters: 14835
cards cast: 10639 or 71.72% ( a very high number for voter turn-out)
Official final results: 26 precincts (Eureka only)
Dikeman 5419 52.40%
Gallegos 4905 47.43%
I don't make this stuff up. As to being annonymous, I will reveal my id after the election.
Eric-I mentioned once before that politics is NOT your strong suit:
Not according to James Faulk's article on how we voted. According to the article, Gallegos received 3411 votes in Eureka while Gallegos received 2981. And Measure T passed in Eureka with 3339 yes to 2889 no.
Was Faulk in error?
I don't know-was Gallegos running against...his wife?
9:13 is my new Best Friend!
7:57 Can we go out for coffee after the election-I think I'm in Love!
7:57am-Those figures can't be right! Can they?
11:15 Check with Humboldt County Elections. Go to June 6 Primary precinct final summary. Its in Adobe format pdf:
http://co.humboldt.ca.us/election/content/2006_primary/june_6_06_primary_SOVC.pdf
Bass-64%
Wolford-60%
Leonard-62%
Jones 65%
Flemming-63%
Midday exit poling from:
http://buhnetribune.blogspot.com/
Eat your heart out Progressives-don't you have to be on the boards to have a 'minority'?
SHUT OUT! O for 5
11:35, do you honestly think the Buhne polls mean a thing?
I mean, I am hoping for exactly what buhne's NONSCIENTIFIC polling is showing, but c'mon...don't be counting those chickens quite yet ;)
If wishes were horses... Of course the poll is unscientific! Who cares - if it reflects the end results, whoppee!
You can call your friends to exit pol...'maybe' the results won't be so umm (whaahooo!!!!) Sorry I lost control.
Buhnes poll shows the humboldt blogger community for what it is. A bunch of Republican hermits, cooking hot pockets, collecting some sort of state/federal retirement/benefits, and bitching about 'jobless liberals'.
11:50 You mean like Leo Sears and Jerry Partain?!? Hehaha
HEY!! 11:47 is a card carrying DEMOCRAT! Put that in yer pipe.
And I'm voting for 9:13 in 2008!
Some people vote for principles, not cute campaign tricks. Bonnie Neely ran on this same platform 20 years ago and yes I fell for it then/wiser now, I chose to vote for the little spitfire with all the energy!
Instead of the fat cat sitting in the throne room pushing the buttons like some wizard of oz.
The emperor doesn't have clothes.
The economy of Eureka has been heavily impacted by all the buildings Co of Humboldt needs to put all their welfare to work folks-and what about poor downtown merchants? Have you ever actually shopped downtown-not much.
There IS NO PARKING.
Its about time we elected a city council with friends on the board of supes. Way OVERDUE.
And can I put in a plug?
Next time the jail needs a paint job, can you people think about symetricity? Paint it the same sky blue/grey as the courthouse!
And those horrible 'windows' for the jail look like faces with crying eyes. Get rid of the rust stains too.
hey, y'know, a $50 dollar tax voucher can pay for alot of noon day breakfasts at Denny's....
11:53, 12:13
I don't think of the whole Humboldt Tax Payers League the same as Jerry and Leo-they've been shot down for going against the grain.
As for their State funded pensions-it isn't welfare!!-they paid into the pension funds they draw on now! Stop being so mean.
I thought myself they were bored old men who needed attention from family members or a change in medication-but they have calmed down, some...
Just keep your eye on those election results-U is going to pass!! I can't beleive I get to win them all today. Knocking on wood*************!
lol, theyre to easy to pick on.
U will pass. I think the dream team will clean up, although I'd like to see at least one a-teamer win, just to keep some sort of balance.
your two cents is worth exactly that, perhaps even less.
This whole prediction left, right, progressive, conservative stuff is stupid in Humboldt County and it's going to be a real problem in the future if it keeps going this way.
Everyone who supports making it so divided rather than both sides working together for the betterment of our SMALL community is the only thing that matters.
Who gives a hoot if a guy with a lot of money comes into town and buys things to make them better? It's not like he built a fortress in the middle of town or a compound, it's for people to use and enjoy. HOORAY I say. At least I don't have to look at the Vance Hotel all boarded up with squatters any more.
People are such jerks. I can't believe the spin.
I think Glass is an absolute JERK and he ALWAYS has been and if he wasn't being so bitter about everything he's realize he used to have this really cool business but he's the one who moved away and he's the one who stopped paying attention, had no creativity to offer the business and no input into the community. He is no different than these so called "old men bitching about taxes and collecting their pension" he's just whining and complaining but I don't see him offering his so called "REAL" economic growth.
Yeah, because in Humbodlt County we have so many people who have a freaking PENSION. I think you mean social security. Sheesh.
Don't even get me started on Kuhnel. He also seems like a jerk, listening to his interviews and debate. I hear him badmouthing and condescending but he never says anything original, valuable, or interesting.
I don't really think he has a real issue or concern other than trying to be a local hot shot. I love that his tv commercial tries to play it like his family has been here for generations. Uh, no, sorry- that's a lie. Why does no one call this guy in these things? He just seems like this big operator who is pushing an agenda and doesn't really care about you or me or the people staying at the downtowner hotel, you know?
How can you say that a guy who is so worried about the color a victorian house is painted has a concern about the REAL EUREKA???
Like Leonard's choices or not, he's been in there the rying, listening, and even making some decisions that make people not like him. I want someone in office who is willing to make hard choices even if I don't always agree. It means he's not pandering to any side but what seems factual.
He seems to really care - even if you can't get behind every issue decision he's made, he actually cares about the city and he shows up everywhere all the time. It cracks me up that he's seen being talked about like he's on the right. Hellllooooooo don't you remember when he ran for this office the first time, his opponent tried to make a big deal that he was registered Green and then changed to Dem?
It's a non-issue this whole right lefty stuff, or it SHOULD be if we actually want anything done.
I cannot get over how everyone is falling for all this spin. It's like being in Washington DC only less prostitutes.
I am voting for the people who are NOT making it about that.
GO LEONARD! GO FLEMMING!
Why spend all this money on elections? Let's just hold our elections at the Buhne Tribune.
12:57 what money have you spent on elections? I mean, other than some taxes to get those votes tallied.
I know I haven't spent any.
I have not sent one single dime to any candidate in this election.
Don't have the courage of your convictions? Or just don't have the cash?
I wonder how many time Jerry and Leo will shit themselves tonight!? I mean more than normal...
1:53 I have the courage and conviction but I definitely don't have the cash.
Had to absentee this time around while elsewhere trying to make cash to live, but I usually volunteer on certain campaigns or in voting booths as a way to participate.
Think I will start a blog myself for the next time around. The cranky middle of the road, hates partisanship blog! ;)
"...I think Glass is an absolute JERK and he ALWAYS has been... "
Once, about 25 years ago, I sold Larry Glass some unneeded LPs. As I left the store, he grabbed the box I was using to carry the records he didn't want to buy. After snatching the box out of my hands, he pawed through every record, then looked at me sheepishly. What on earth was happening, I wondered.
He admitted his embarassment. He had grabbed my box of records to see if I had stolen any NEW LPs out of the store.
That was, I guess, the day Larry Glass discovered two things about me.
Number One: I am honest. Like a lot of people who live in Humboldt County, no matter how poor I may be, I remain honest. It is a point of pride and a foundation of my personal value system.
Number Two: I am a reasonable and forgiving person. That's why I told him I understood why he would feel the need, as a businessman, to do awkward things to protect his business.
If he reads this entry, he may also discover Number Three: Though I am forgiving, I never forget.
Well, people can change in 25 years. I have seen evidence of change over the years. I voted for him today.
3:36-Hey Misty-can I join the cranky people?
There are quite few of us disenfranchised-used-to-be-one-party-or-another-but-now-we're-"homeless"-folks!
Even non-partisan workaholics like to belong someplace...
2:41 From your post-I'm guessing YOU are the one who's gonna s**t themself tonight!
The Cranky Republics? Or the Cranky it Left?
4:49 You missed the boat-We're NON Partisan cranky people who want to get things done!
Misty when will you be back in town?
To 4:42
That Larry would presume that you were a thief and subject you to an embarrassing search, speaks volumes.
A presumption of guilt will serve the City well? I remember when he drove EBIDA into the ground. After the audit, he received the benefit of a presumption of innocence but, at least, was replaced as Exec. Dir.
Your integrity is intact because you have the ethical compass to support it. Can the same be said.....
Our votes cancelled each other.
60% of voters want change!
*********Yeah Flemming!********
Changing to the old Mayor is not a forward-looking move. Do you really want to live in a county governed by a Princess?
wow, looks like things are trending for a lavalee, glass, kuhnel, jones & neely victory, with the early leads by the more conservative candidates built up in the absentee voting slowly melting away with around 79% of the vote in...
Well, 9:13, if things continue to trend towards the progressive slate, as they appear to be doing, maybe you need to do at least another 35 years of
"being at the campaign thing" before trotting out your fearless prognasications...I mean, if, in fact you come back in and check things out here..lol, you got spanked pretty good with the whole "dikeman won in eureka" thing as well...
oooohhhhhh wow....glass, bass, leonard jones....wow
So 9:47, are you offering yourself up for the spanking machine now?
Progressives my left eyeball. Puh-lease. More like digressives with the way the spinning slate came in to muddy the water. It's good to have opposition but everything I've read, watched, and researched shows me a big strawman looking for a bully pulpit.
Too bad about Glass. I am sure he'll be all sorts of "fun" during the council meetings. I imagine his hater agenda will wear pretty thin pretty fast.
5:22pm I won't be back until summer '07 but start your non-partisan dream team without me and I'll join!
Wow! These elections were really close. No real referendum came out. Hmmm. I will have to ponder the results and comment tommorow.
Flemming 60%!!!!
Oops Glass
Jones
Leonard
Bass
We can make do-let's see who the council appoints to fill Virginia's seat. Now THAT will be interesting!
Glass and Kerrigan will probably be making headlines frequently.
Lets just see how this shakes out first Eric-I think Glass has some catching up to do. He may not end up being a party wonk for Local Solutions afterall.
8:26...here's an idea. They appoint Mary Beth after she rents a little hovel in Virginia's district.
Couldn't be an issue with that could there? I can hear the stuck pigs screaming now, only problem is they dare not discuss it. The Glass ploy will definitely bite them in the behind if they try to. Salzman/Kerrigan are not looking too sharp now, are they?
Count on the suggestion being made. It was a real loss for the council when Wolford went down.
Stay tuned......developing.
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