Thursday, April 30, 2009

Handicapping the 4th District Supervisorial Race 2010!

We all know it just around the corner, so it is time to evaluate the chances of potential candidates running for the Humboldt County 4th District Supervisor seat. We all know Bonnie will be finishing her "sixth" term, or 24 years, and with there being no term limits on Humboldt County Supervisors, she is free to run once again. Here are my odds of names being thrown out there to actually run and comments:

Bonnie Neely (8-7): I would not wager money on her not running. She has been calling supporters and collecting funds. I will predict she will have a harder time funding this campaign. I do not think she will be able to ride a "Democrats for Neely" train to victory this time. (Unless she changes party affiliations.)

Jeff Leonard (7-5): Jeff is a current Eureka City Councilman who is a registered Democrat with social liberal tendencies, but fiscally conservative. "Show me the money!" He will be hosting a campaign kick off on may 29th. Something drastic would have to happen to change his mind.

Richard Marks (8-5): Elected positions-Board of Directors, Samoa Peninsula Fire District and Humboldt County Democratic Central Committee. Been there done that.....twice. I am the only one to challenge Bonnie multiple times. It's kind of a hobby now. I can win other elections, just not this "Holy Grail" Supervisor job that pays more per capita than any other of the 58 counties in the state! By $30,000 a year! I support working class ideals and have nearly 40 years of working history in this county.

Virginia Bass (9-5): The Mayor of Eureka. This could make this race a classic. She has great name recognition and is very eloquent. I would classify Virginia as a Left leaning Republican. She has the potential to finance a monster campaign. Her husband led Frank Jager to a huge victory for City Councilman and knows the nuts and bolts of a campaign.

Kaitlin Sopoci-Belknap (5-1): Humboldt Bay Municipal Water District Chair. Green Party community organizer. She knows how win elections and how to organize grass root campaigns. I have heard her name brought up, but have not heard anything from her. Kaitlin told me tonight that she has no intentions.

Larry Glass (10-1): Eureka City Councilman. Democrat. Has potential to win any election here in the North Coast. Has done nothing but further his popularity while on the city counsil. It would be fun to see.

Mike Jones (15-1): Republican. Conservative. Mike knows many people in Eureka. I just don't think he wants the hassle.

Any others out there?


mresquan said...

Virginia lives in the 1st district,so she'd have to find a place in the 4th.Mike?He hates meetings,no way you'd get him to attend any on a weekly basis.It would be fun to watch him have some exchanges with Tad though.

Rambo said...

I'll vote for ya rich. If I could.

The Boy Most Likely to ... said...

Who would have guessed that Vegas Odds makers would be upstaged by a man out on the Peninsula!

It could be a very interesting race.


Anonymous said...

Richard is like Pat Paulson for President, as for elections you have won are there over 50 voters in any of those hotly contested battles, besides the union which changed all the time.

Anonymous said...

If too many people run - which is a good thing because of choices - there may be such a split between some of them that the Bonnie will march back to her seat. I believe lots of her voters think she is doing a good job and vote for her again. Is she doing a good job when she switches her vote to go with what she knows will be a majority vote? The Coroner's issue was one where she switched sides and left Clif hanging as she could see it was going to be a 3 to 2 vote with her coming out on the losing side.

samoasoftball said...

6:39am-When I ran for the HCDCC 4th District seat, I recieved over 1,000 votes with 88% of the Democrats penciling me in.

Comparing me to Paulsen? Last time I ran for Supervisor I garnered over 1,600 votes. 25%. And my campaign was outspent 10-1. (I did not accept any corporate funds.)

Between Bonnie and Nancy Flemming, they raised around $250,000. Hard to compete financially with that.

Anonymous said...

I can't see all of these as serious candidates. But in particular Jeff "motor mouth" Leonard, and Mike "what time does the game start" Jones would be ludicrous to watch in a real campaign. I don't think Glass is going to run in spite of his well deserved popularity, and as pointed out Virginia is in the wrong district, and so go for it Richard. Even if Bonnie does run you have a real shot as the only real Democrat in the race, and if she does not you may be a shoo in against a nitwit like Leonard.

Anonymous said...

Frank J├Ąger won his city council seat in spite of his campaign manager, not because of him.

Carson Park Ranger said...

" spite of his campaign manager..."?

Not likely. Though Mr. Jager is popular, Mr. Owen organized, raised funds, canvassed neighborhoods (including mine), and ran a successful campaign.

Anonymous said...

Larry Glass will not run, as he is looking at the potential of having a prog majority on the Eureka City Council. His not seeking re-election could put that in jeopardy.

Also he is afraid of the wrath of the bon-bon (for good reason).

Anonymous said...

Mresquan is right on. When a meeting has to go for ever just so peole can posture, for what ever reason, I hate meetings. Campagin door to door, not on the diocess. Oh well, I tried.
And the 15-1, more like 100-1!, And put your money on General Quarters in the Derby today, to place of course.
em jay

Carson Park Ranger said...

"...the wrath of the bon-bon..."

Please grow up. Baby talk reflects poorly even upon Anonymous.

Anonymous said...

Sorry guys, Bonnie is already
a Democrat. Just look at her
voting record. Larry Glass will
run. He has to big of an ego
not to.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget Charles Douglass.

Anonymous said...

Rex Bohn is the dark horse in this race. Dont count him out.

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