Johanna Rodoni Write-In Campaign for 2nd District Supervisor, Humboldt County is going to have many obstacles. First, her campaign is assuming they will be able to garner the votes that her late Husband Roger had back in the primary vote. If that 37% decides to vote for Johanna, they will have to actually write in her name and fill the pertinent bubble to show they are voting for her. Not as clear cut as some might think.
In 2004 Donna Frye, a city councilperson for San Diego mounted a write in campaign for Mayor and won! Until the votes were challenged and ballots that did not spell her name correctly or have the bubble properly filled in were thrown out. So even when the intent was clear that voters in San Diego were voting for her was there, she still lost.
So Johanna's campaign has a two fold problem, one is to educate the voters to spell her name correctly, and two, making sure they fill the bubble. Sounds easy, but it is not. Absentee voters who get to take their time in voting will be the most likely to vote correctly, and I am sure her campaign is focusing heavily on those people. But people who hurry to the polls and feel rushed to vote are not as likely to take the time to make sure they correctly vote for Johanna. I predict that she will not receive over 27% of the vote. (Taking into account that 10% less will vote for her than Roger just because of the write in hassle.) Even if I am wrong and she pulls out a majority victory, those challenged votes will come into play.
Now where will those votes go? That is the big question. I would like to think that Estelle will have a 10% jump, but is that reality? Does that much separate Estelle and Clif ideology wise? I am going to guess that each will have a 5% bump and the final Tally will most likely come down to this:
Clif Clendenen 40%
Estelle Fennell 33%
Johanna Rodoni 27%
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