Friday, October 03, 2008

Johanna Rodoni has huge mountain to climb in the 2nd District.

Johanna Rodoni Write-In Campaign for 2nd District Supervisor, Humboldt County is going to have many obstacles. First, her campaign is assuming they will be able to garner the votes that her late Husband Roger had back in the primary vote. If that 37% decides to vote for Johanna, they will have to actually write in her name and fill the pertinent bubble to show they are voting for her. Not as clear cut as some might think.

In 2004 Donna Frye, a city councilperson for San Diego mounted a write in campaign for Mayor and won! Until the votes were challenged and ballots that did not spell her name correctly or have the bubble properly filled in were thrown out. So even when the intent was clear that voters in San Diego were voting for her was there, she still lost.

So Johanna's campaign has a two fold problem, one is to educate the voters to spell her name correctly, and two, making sure they fill the bubble. Sounds easy, but it is not. Absentee voters who get to take their time in voting will be the most likely to vote correctly, and I am sure her campaign is focusing heavily on those people. But people who hurry to the polls and feel rushed to vote are not as likely to take the time to make sure they correctly vote for Johanna. I predict that she will not receive over 27% of the vote. (Taking into account that 10% less will vote for her than Roger just because of the write in hassle.) Even if I am wrong and she pulls out a majority victory, those challenged votes will come into play.

Now where will those votes go? That is the big question. I would like to think that Estelle will have a 10% jump, but is that reality? Does that much separate Estelle and Clif ideology wise? I am going to guess that each will have a 5% bump and the final Tally will most likely come down to this:

Clif Clendenen 40%
Estelle Fennell 33%
Johanna Rodoni 27%

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Richard, do you honestly believe Rodoni voters are as stupid as the people on the HDCC?

Clif Clendenen 45%
Estelle Fennell 17%
Johanna Rodoni 38%

Palin Progressive said...

Boy, the name-calling starts earlier and earlier. Anonymous or not, it seems to come from the general direction of Camp Clendenen. Ain't it great? Dontcha think? You betcha!

Anonymous said...

It's too early to predict this race. 'Course, that won't keep us from doing it anyway:

Estelle will win.

EF 41
CC 39
JR 20

The candidate with momentum right now is Estelle Fennell. Her numbers could go up. Johanna could do a bit better, but unlikely.

Clif is done.

samoasoftball said...

1:13pm That is HCDCC- Your vote wouldn't have counted. Thanks for the example!

1:43pm Clif is done, yet you only have Estelle winning by 2%? Not a strong statement.

Carol said...

Richard, with all due respect, I believe you are believing the naysayers and are underestimating Estelle. She has been working tirelessly in the 2nd district since June and has been garnering more support, especially from young,newly-registered voters. Last night she opened her new campaign HQ on the corner of 11th and Main and it was a big success! Next week there will be a Rock the Vote event at Benbow. Go Estelle!

Anonymous said...

Estelle's campaign has went well.

Anonymous said...

What's with the Winery folks abandoning the Fennell camp and going over to Clendenon? Didn't they host a fundraiser for her in the primary?

Anonymous said...

some people even endorse more than one person, so that's just grasping at straws. EF is gonna win this!

Anonymous said...

This post deleted by the overweight Carson Fart Ranger with the funny looking sports jacket from the 1930's
and ugly black hair .