Sunday, June 03, 2012

2nd District Congressional candidate observations. Vote Susan Adams.

Andy Caffrey supplies this latest poll showing Huffman as a runaway victor in this primary race with Susan Adams holding strong to second. Solomon just never seemed to gain traction it look like. Here are some outside looking in observations from the Samoasotball peanut Gallery:

Jared Huffman: Front runner from the start. Nice TV commercials and great mailers. Lots of high ranking endorsements. This guy will be tough to beat after June.

Susan Adams: Nice mailers, but I have not heard one radio ad or saw even one TV ad. And her campaign looks to be dead broke. But is she survives this primary, I will maybe double down my last donation.

Norman Solomon: Why, oh why did he have to negative on Stacey Lawson? His mailers about himself were really good and positive, but the negative mailers were just over the top. I am sure there are many out there who will not support Norman just for this. I have not seen one TV ad or heard one radio ad.

Stacey Lawson: All that money and you couldn't afford more than one TV production? I don't watch that much TV but this commercial is on all the time and is grievous to watch. Her radio ads are pretty much a mirror of the TV. This campaign has been nothing but damage control. Too bad. She is very intelligent and likable. Just needs to start smaller, but she wouldn't be a multi-millionaire with that thinking.

Andy Caffrey: The front runners ultimate campaign on a shoe string budget. Andy has gotten the biggest bang for the buck for sure! Jay Leno, MSNBC, Newspapers all over the North Coast and the best watch in all debates! But no TV or Radio that I have seen outside his facebook. And no mailers.

Dan Roberts: Nice TV commercials. His campaign needs only to identify himself as the true conservative Republican in the race. If he has a slick mailer going to Republicans and gets them to vote, he could be a dark horse.

The others: Good people with no chance. But they have had an exciting ride and maybe will focus on lower offices in there communities. Tiffany Renee excluded as she is in public office currently.


Joel Mielke said...

I love Susan Adams' tagline, "Experience money can't buy." She's very articulate, and unusually qualified.

Fred Mangels said...

And for 2nd district, state assembly, be sure and vote Firenza Pini!

Anonymous said...

Interesting. I don't watch TV commercials, threw away the political mailers and didn't talk to the political callers. I read up about each candidate online (thank you and chose Solomon by a clear margin. I voted absentee -- all done on my end. I don't know what people see in Huffman.

Anonymous said...

Hi Richard,

I'd be interested in seeing what this poll says, but because the type is too small, I can't read the table, and I can't make out which line represents which candidate on the graph. I tried "zooming in" but it just gets too blurry to read.

I assume the top line in the graph is Huffman. But who is in second, third, and fourth places, etc., according to this poll? Could you add that info to your post?

By the way, do you know who conducted the poll and when, and do you know if it is a poll of all registered voters, or just "likely voters?"


- tra

Charles Douglas said...

Here's Caffrey's polling post on his Facebook:

As to Huffman, he held his own in a non-stop 1-hour interview:

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Charles.

So, according to that poll, Adams is in 2nd place, despite being outspent massively by Solomon and Lawson.

Well, I certainly hope that's accurate, because I prefer Adams. And while this poll shows Huffman way out in front, it also suggests that there's still a lot of potential for Adams to round up a lot of not-Huffman votes for the general.

Do you know who conducted these polls, and who they were polling? Was it a reputable polling firm, surveying a random sample of voters?

- tra

samoasoftball said...

tra: Some outfit out of the Midwest did Andy's poll. I don't know of the method, but Andy has been posting up to dates on his Facebook. The Journal did a story also.

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Richard.

Anyway, I hope they're right, at least about Susan Adams being in the top two. I'd love to see her win out over (most of) the big money candidates and make it into the fall runoff against Huffman. Sure, Huff's got the big bucks and he's got endorsements from a lot of party movers-and-shakers, but if Adams can win 2nd place in the primary, despite the considerable fundraising advantages candidates like Solomon and Lawson had, well, that would be quite an impressive accomplishment, and she should start getting a lot more attention -- and hopefully a lot more respect -- in the media.

And since Adams has run a very positive campaign (I haven't seen her campaign making any nasty attacks on any of her rivals) it seems possible that many folks who are currently supporting Solomon and Lawson and others candidates in the primary might be persuaded to come over to the Adams camp for the runoff election in the fall.

I don't think that Jared Huffman is some kind of ogre or anything, but at least for me, when you look at both of them, in a direct, one-on-one comparison, Susan Adams is clearly the better choice.

- tra

John Chiv said...


I don't watch a lot of TV but I have seen Susan Adam ads. People remember Susan after one meeting, she does not need TV ads to convince people. Unlike others Susan has made a great effort to reach out to the local community and made time for us.

Something that other state candidates don't. All the money in the world cannot buy loyalty. And Susan has mine.

Rose said...

Her second Salzman just came out of the closet. Seems she has a penchant for the dirty tricksters.

And we're supposed to believe she's innocent? She owes you all an apology, IMO.

Revealed: The Man Behind 'Who Is Stacey Lawson'

Anonymous said...

Best endorsement yet! Racist Rose Welsh doesn't like Adams. Why would this woman think that she holds sway over any but the most extreme wing nut tea-baggers? I'm surprised she could tear herself away from her "TheCoffeeShop blog", where she glorifies Andrew Breitbart, defends George Zimmerman for killing an unarmed black kid, or rants about the threat of Sharia Law taking over America, long enough to weight in here about a "anonymous blogger". Oh my, what a news story. An anonymous blogger!!!
It's a shame Rose won't climb under whatever rock Allison Jackson's been hiding under since her defeat in 2010.
What was it that George Will called Donald Trump....?

Anonymous said...

I believe it was " a bloviating ignoramus".

Richard Salzman said...

Whether you agree with Norm Solomon's arguments or not, the issues he raises would be used by Jared to destroy Stacy Lawson in a run off.

Jared is assured of being on the November ballot and does not need your vote. Your vote will make a difference in the outcome only if you use it to choose who should get that second slot.

Susan Adams would present the biggest challenge to Jared in a run off. Vote for her now and you'll have six months to further vet both candidates.

Norman is unelectable for all the same reasons liberals like me love him. His activism and fiery rhetoric make him unappealing to moderate and independent voters that one would need to win in a general election.

While Adams shares most of Solomon’s liberal positions, she appeals to moderate and independent voters in spite of, not because of her policy positions. In part due to the difference in their styles. While Norm delivers his ideals with conviction, it can come off as lecturing to those not in agreement, where as Susan listens and involves all viewpoints in the conversation as she works to build consensus.

The fact that Adams has been endorsed by BOTH Mark Lovelace AND Virginia Bass should make my point about her wide appeal. And I've been working on her campaign right along side former Allison Jackson supporters!

While Susan is a life long Democrat, she would be preferred by many non-Democrats in November because she is not backed by the "Democratic Party Machine" as is Jared.

Susan has the closest ties to the entire Northcoast, with family still living on their Mendocino Ranch as well a brother who lives here in Carlotta (his son was CHP Officer Thomas Adams).

Adams also has a compelling life story of working class roots with 33 years as a registered nurse (and CNA member), smarts, with a PhD being a professor of nursing, and having served three terms as a county supervisor.

Susan was always a long shot to win in June but would be the only true contender in November. I believed that last October when I joined her campaign and having talked to hundreds of voters since then I believe it even more so today.

Your vote for Susan Adams on Tuesday will give us a real choice in November and an option for someone who would truly represent Humboldt County in Washington D.C..

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the link to Cafrey's data. I have no idea who comes in second Tuesday. Without intending any slight to Cafrey I am one hundred percent convinced that there is no possible way he comes in ahead of Lawson. Money don't buy you much but it sure buys you a spot ahead of Andy and more than five percent overall. Because of this I simply cannot take any of the rest of the data seriously. I'm afraid that Andy's pollsters have been partaking of his stash a bit too much.

As an aside, I sure appreciate him being in the race. Her has certainly brought attention to issues that would otherwise have received no attention at all. Good for Andy.

Iraq War Veteran said...

Norman Solomon: Why, oh why did he have to go negative on Stacey Lawson? His mailers about himself were really good and positive, but the negative mailers were just over the top. I am sure there are many out there who will not support Norman just for this.

The same could be said of the Adams' Campaign......Hypocrisy? Isn't this the (former) Campaign Manager of Susan Adam?

brian connors said...

The reason i'm NOT voting for Susan Adams, She hired Richard Salzman....

Anonymous said...

brian, what do you think of

Richard Marks?

He's with Salzman.

Anonymous said...

This your guy, Richard?

samoasoftball said...

8:27pm-Can't vote for him. He is a personal friend and was my boss. He was very fair to me and my fellow workers.

If Cheryl wins? I won't cry. She is very smart and very personable. I wish she entered the race 6 months ago. Her campaign has really done a great job of catch up.

samoasoftball said...

I have met Susan multiple times. Watched a Niner game with her. Talked family and personal stuff. Talked hard politics and policy. She is right on line with my political philosophy.

Come on now, Salzman and I have been at war with each other over Humboldt Micro politics, but we do agree on Susan. And Richard is very good at "Boots on the ground" politicing.

He is right on about Susan bringing very diverse groups of people together.

So here you go, Stacey with her anchors, Huffman the annointed, Solomon the negative, Caffrey the little engine that could, Roberts the obnoxious self obsorbed conservative, (My personal observation in multiple debates) or level headed Susan Adams.

I support Susan and have sent her my donation. If she survives, I will double down and I hope others will also.