I don't have any psychic reasoning for these numbers, but I do have some reasoning. First, we now have a head count on who and how many are running. It looks like 5 of the candidates will be working with more than $200,000 dollars in their coffers. Below is the ballot placement. Susan Adams was the big winner and could get a 5% boost from the placement. She is now very viable. I am assuming that a 49% turnout overall, with just over 200,000 votes cast in this race. I am also assuming a split of the votes in Marin and Sonoma. That means the Northern counties will be very important. I have posted earlier on those predictions. Adams and Solomon have the best on the ground campaigns in the North so far, but Stacey could change that by plunking big dollars into phone banks and door knockers. I don't see any concerted campaign by Huffman north of Mendocino. He will pay dearly for that this June. Got to admit, lots of great candidates this time around.
| Candidates |
Total Votes |
Percentage |
| Susan Adams |
38014 |
19% |
| Stacey Lawson |
30829 |
15% |
| John DeWallen |
2915 |
1% |
| Dan Roberts |
18113 |
9% |
| Tiffany Renee |
10251 |
5% |
| Normon Solomon |
40798 |
20% |
| Jared Huffman |
37358 |
18% |
| Mike Halliwell |
5541 |
3% |
| Andy Caffery |
5322 |
3% |
| William
Courtney |
9515 |
5% |
| Brooke Clark |
2675 |
1% |
| Larry Fritzlan |
2236 |
1% |
| |
|
100.0% |
| |
|
|
| Total |
203566 |
100.0% |
7 comments:
I hope you're right, Richard!
It's going to be Huffman then everybody else. None of the others will finish within 10 pts of Huffman in the June primary. If I had to guess who Huffman's opponent will be in the November election I would have to say at this point Solomon. Maybe Lawson. Either way Huffman will take it in November by 20 pts.
Why does everyone up here always assume that Marin/Sonoma will divvy out its vote exactly evenly between the major candidates?
Seems like wishful thinking up here in Humboldt.
Richard is trying to handicap this race from Humboldt County. He knows little about the political climate in Marin and Sonoma counties, which is where this race will be decided. And Solomon is perceived as a lightweight in both these counties.
8:24pm: You are absolutely spot on about my insights for Marin and Sonoma counties. But I have talked to most of the candidates and that is their observations. Most all agree that the key is to capturing the north. From there I have a pretty good track record in handicapping elections. I have put many variables in my calculations.
7:23pm: No way Huffman ends up 10% ahead of the rest of this pack In June. You willing to lay a wager on this? I am wayyyyyy confident in at least that.
Richard made an observation. He gave some reasons.
To those who disagree with him, having a different opinion is fine, but be respectful. Especially if you don't have the courage to sign your name.
No one has a pyschic ball, and no one can predict elections, what does help is someone who actually has a pulse and feel for all voters, not just their candidates.
My wish for this election and the local elections is that all the pundits and those who think they know it all, get a wake-up call and the voters win with a candidate who listens to them.
According to a poll over at Lost Coast Outpost, Stacy Lawson is in second.
But I don't trust any polls in a district like this. I don't think you can come up with an adequate representative sampling.
I would love to see a runoff between Solomon and Adams. There would be some high level and substantial debates, and we would have two great choices.
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