Thursday, March 29, 2012
Solomon and Adams in final for Congress. Don't laugh, could happen.
I don't have any psychic reasoning for these numbers, but I do have some reasoning. First, we now have a head count on who and how many are running. It looks like 5 of the candidates will be working with more than $200,000 dollars in their coffers. Below is the ballot placement. Susan Adams was the big winner and could get a 5% boost from the placement. She is now very viable. I am assuming that a 49% turnout overall, with just over 200,000 votes cast in this race. I am also assuming a split of the votes in Marin and Sonoma. That means the Northern counties will be very important. I have posted earlier on those predictions. Adams and Solomon have the best on the ground campaigns in the North so far, but Stacey could change that by plunking big dollars into phone banks and door knockers. I don't see any concerted campaign by Huffman north of Mendocino. He will pay dearly for that this June. Got to admit, lots of great candidates this time around.