Monday, June 02, 2008

Fearless Prediction June 3rd, 2008!

Here are my fearless predictions for Tomorrow’s election starting from the top:

United States Representative First District

Mike Thompson 65%
Mitchell Clogg 35%

Mike is a conservative “blue dog” Democrat who has been vocal against the war and is active in supporting worker legislation. I collected signatures to put him on the ballot for congress when he first ran and have donated to his campaign. I also have a 1995 Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve bottle of Mike Thompson wine, so I am kinda beholden to him. Mr. Clogg did not present himself as a viable candidate.

State Assembly Member First District

Wesley Chesbro 95%

No competition in the primaries. Sweet. Wes has been on the state Senate, so as Patty Berg playfully jokes, “he knows where the bathrooms are!”

Democratic Central Committee Fourth District

Pam Service 23%
Bob Service 23%
Charlene Cutler-Ploss 22%
Jake Pickering 16%
Richard Marks 16%

Four will win. Jake has the best set up on the ballot. He is the first listed and his listing as a Social Worker is bound to help in a Democratic primary. Pam and Bob are listed next. I am number four on the ballot with Charlene listed last. Pam, Bob, Charlene and I have been going door to door passing out information. This is the first time in years that the Fourth District Democratic Committee has had an election. The Third District had an election in 2006 with Milt Boyd, Barbara Carolan, Sheryl Esparza, Chris Beresford and Shannon Gillespie winning and Jake Pickering in sixth. Obviously he has moved to a new resident in the Fourth.

Non Partisan Offices

Superior Court Judge

Joyce Hinrichs 95%

Nice to have no challengers. Joyce is a great pick regardless.

1st Supervisor District

Jimmy Smith 60%
John Vevoda 39%
Tracey Wells 1%

Jimmy Smith is a good man who does his best in helping constituents. He does not play partisan politics and has supporters from both side of the political spectrum. And let me tell you, he won the sign wars by a mile in the Northern portion of the district. John Vevoda didn’t leave much in his interviews to leave you wanting more. Didn’t seem up on county issues. Tracey is running some sort of stealth write in campaign. Only seen one sign. Anyone know what is up with that?

2nd Supervisor District

Johanna Rodoni 45%
Estelle Fennell 30%
Clif Clendenen 25%

Yes, I am calling it like it is regardless of Roger’s name being on the ballot. This is going to a run off. Estelle still has a big job turning Fortuna votes her way. This could be Clif’s in November.

3rd Supervisor District

Mark Lovelace 50.5%
Bryan Plumley 35%
Paul Pitino 14.5%

This should end this election. Bryan seems nice enough, but his backing by many conservatives is kind of scary. His campaign has been kind of spotty, but they have been able to get his name out there pretty good. His web site lists Dan Collen and Mike Pigg as Trustees of the Arcata Unified School District. Huh? I thought they were Trustees with my wife on the Northern Humboldt Union High School District. That includes McKinleyville High and 5 other community schools. Sloppy. And of course I am concerned that Bryan wants to keep his day time job besides serving on the BOS. $79,000 part time job? Paul is a great guy with good ideas, but he does not stand a chance without actually electioneering. Mark has my support.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Estelle still has a big job turning Fortuna votes her way."

and, she is up to it. Go, Estelle!

mitch clogg for congress said...

Wake up, Samoa! Mike Thompson's voted for every single war authorization, the last one on May 22. It's on the Web, fer Pete sake. In the north state, he's presided over the collapse of fishing and timber. In farm country, he's nourished the kind of top-down favoritism that gets him millions in donations, makes a handful of wine merchants very rich and causes the kind of inhuman working conditions that resulted in the death last week of a seventeen-year-old girl, dead of heat stroke in a baking-hot vineyard. In the cities, he's brought on the kind of authoritarian rule that got a harmless, innocent man murdered by police in Woodland. Thompson has a lot to account for. Most of his huge campaign cash is from booze, the mortgage industry, real estate and all the drug, medical-insurance and surgeons' lobbies. In the woods, we have meth producers who are poisoning the kids. Are we gonna re-elect him? Not if I get your vote!

Shane said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hank Sims said...

Richard -- you're adding to 110 percent in the Second District!

Apart from that, great minds think alike.

Anonymous said...

Did Marks change his numbers on the 2nd district or (gasp) is Hank wrong?

Hank Sims said...

No, there was definite rejiggering.

I believe Fennell and Clendenen each lost a straight 5 percent in the revised Marksist predictions.

mresquan said...

Smith 57%
Vevoda 43%

Rodoni 45 %
Fennel 25%
Clendenen 30%

Lovelace 50.5%
Plumley 33.5 %
Pitino 16%

Mendo Measure B
no 52%
yes 48%

Babushka said...

I think you're giving Clogg too much credit. I looked at the Smart Voter site over the weekend. Pickering had a statement, Charlene did not. A "little" thing like that could tip it.

Anonymous said...

What about the McKinleyville school bond, dudes?

Anonymous said...

Fearless leader ... who cares?

swami said...

Estelle will do better in Fortuna than anyone wants to believe.

Anonymous said...

Hope the school bond dosn't pass. It wastes a lot of money. The Northern Union School District didn't take a bond and fixed their schools by taking a loan.

This does nothing for children's education. Puts a roof on that won't be paid for before it needs redoing. Much like Eureka's two school bonds - what did they get? Not a lot for the $53 million on their house tax bills.

Anonymous said...

Nice to know that people read the Smart Voter! I'm happy to report that I do have a statement submitted and I found it when I looked. Please check again!

I appreciated Richard's comments of support and second them for the four of us. All four of us have worked hard in our community, and on this committee, and we would appreciate your support to continue in these positions.

Charlene Cutler-Ploss

Babushka said...

Glad I'm wrong and hope you win Charlene.!

Eric V. Kirk said...

You did very well Richard - not just in the election, but also in your predictions. Gave Clogg too much credit, and, like me, didn't give Clif enough. But you were spot on most of the way.

Birdman said...

Yes, but accusing anyone of being sloppy is like the pot calling the kettle black.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Babushka! And thank you to everyone who supported me. I am honored to have been reelected.

Charlene Cutler-Ploss

Eric V. Kirk said...

Estelle will do better in Fortuna than anyone wants to believe.

Well...

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