Tuesday, January 03, 2012

2nd Congressional Predictions Mendocino County.

I am not convinced that Republican Dan Roberts will have any legs in any of the Northern Counties. Less than 50% of the Republicans will vote for him, with many split votes all over the place. This is a harder County to canvas and campaign, so I am giving the advantage to Huffman, Adams and Lawson. After Del Norte, Trinity, Humboldt and Mendocino, I have Solomon with 13,184, Huffman at 12,789, Adams at 12,505 and Lawson at 11,075. Very close with 2 counties to go. Watch for Roberts making a dramatic move down south!

County   Population Voters Dems  Reps Other Percent
Mendocino   86,000 48,000 11054 5645 6821 49%
  Banafsheh Akhlaghi     221 56 68 1.5%
  Normon Solomon     2245 286 1156 15.7%
  Dan Roberts     553 1976 682 13.7%
  Susan Adams     2110 890 1364 18.6%
  Jared Huffman     2310 800 1400 19.2%
  William Courtney     553 169 205 3.9%
  Andy Caffery     521 56 273 3.6%
  Stacey Lawson     1888 960 1400 18.1%
  Tiffany Renee     653 452 273 5.9%
        11054 5645 6821  

2 comments:

Fred Mangels said...

I'm curious what makes you think only 50% or less of Republicans will vote for Dan Roberts?

Fred Mangels said...

Oh, I see. You're referring to the table and figures you posted. I have a hard time believing that.