In June 2008, I was about as close as one could get on the local races. Here I stick out my neck again. And add the presidential election.
President
Barack Obama 50%
John McCain 45%
Others 5%
Let us hope and pray!
Congress and Assembly-
Thompson and Chesbro by many votes.
Humboldt County Supervisor 2nd District
Clif Clendenen-No Party 37%
Estelle Fennell-Democrat 33%
Johanna Rodoni-Republican 30%
I can not see JO/RO educating enough voters or motivating enough to pull this write-in Ballot attempt off. Clif seems to have gained support and Estelle’s campaign seems to have leveled off. I hope I am wrong, but this is my opinion.
Eureka City Council
2nd Ward-
Polly Endert-Republican 53%
Linda Adkins-Democrat 47%
Linda has proven to be an admirable candidate and this will be a close race. Polly seems to have spent/wasted many of thousands of dollars on unnecessary multi-mailers and way too much in Newspaper ads. But just the shear volume of literature, and close North Coast ties will lead Polly to be elected.
4th Ward-
Frank Jager-Republican 55%
George Clark-Democrat 45%
I have said this was a lock for the Democrat in the race, but I have seen many Democrats supporting Frank. Why? Got me. Frank has huge name recognition and most of it is positive?
Arcata City Council (Three seats available)
Michael Winkler-Democrat 38%
Shane Brinton-Democrat 31%
Michael Machi-No Party 28%
Susan Ornelas-Republican 25%
Jason Grow-No Party 9%
Geronimo Garcia-Green Party 5%
Winkler is a lock. Shane, Machi and Ornelas are going to be close. This is my wishful thinking.
Humboldt Bay Municipal Water District
Division 1
Kaitlin Sopoci-Belknap-Green 58%
Stephen Davies-Democrat 42%
Kaitlin has been a good district board member that has worked well with other board members.
Division 2
Ben Shepherd-Republican 35%
Edward “Buzz” Webb-Democrat 25%
Tera Prucha-Democrat 25%
Jake Pickering-Democrat 8%
Adrienne Floreen-No Party 7%
Ben did really well on the KEET debates and seemed smooth. He has been on the MCSD for years and knows a thing or two about campaigning. The HCDCC split on endorsing a Democrat may cost a Democrat seating on this board. Still don't know what Jake Pickering looks like. Adrienne looked way angry during the debate.
Division 3
Barbara Hecathorn-Republican 65%
Robert Shultz-Democrat 35%
Robert needed to form a committee and work the streets. Did not see this happen.
All these predictions are my own. I have heard from many in each area and can qualify my choices. Don’t argue with me now, wait and chastise me afterwards. Who out there has the guts to publicly give their unbiased opinion?
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29 comments:
Richard,
These results would not be good for the Dems endorsements. My count in these Non-partisan races is they would go: 2 wins and 4 loses. After 17 wins in a row that would be tough.
I hope you are right on all three water board races. I hope you are right on the city council races except Winkler...go GOP'er Susan!
Mike Harvey
Estelle should step aside for the good of the county and be forever loved for having done so. Instead she will risk handing a win to JR.
Richard,
How dare you give Jake more votes than Adrienne. I admire her attending the forum and she gave some good answers. I hope they combine for 15%.
With that said Jake went door to door in Mack town. He stopped by my office twice leaving matchbooks saying Jake Pickering Democrat.
Johanna has done a wonderful job on the write-in campaign. I pray she get enough.
Regards, Mike Harvey
THE SAND ORACLE HATH SPOKEN!
I've learned my lesson over the years. I don't make my own predictions, I just copy Richard's.
Richard, you have said more than once that anyone with no party affiliation cannot win a local race, and now you are picking more than one candidate with no party affiliation to garner enough votes to win. What's up with that?
Adrienne is right about the flouride.
Is any polling done for any of the local races besides Arcata?
8:30am-Fair Question. I have felt that Endorsed Democrats around the county have definite demographic advantages and most races are theirs to lose. This may prove to be tough election for the HCDCC. Why?
Estelle Fennell-Had the endorsement of the HCDCC but is running against a well funded "progressive" hand "picked" business (Clif) candidate that seems to be able to draw votes from both sides of the aisle in the most conservative area in the county. I don't see Estelle carrying many Republican votes. Rodoni might actually hurt Clif in this race. I hope for Estelle.
Eureka's council race is a whole different animal than I was expecting. I have said that the Democrats just need to put a fancy postcard in the mail identifying themselves as the Democrats of choice and this is a lock. But I witnessed a rallying movement in Jager's campaign, and obviously he is hitting the streets hard. Check out the signs in Democrats yards. You don't see the crossover in the Clark campaign. Polly has thrown money around with wild abandon and Linda is just to new to the community. But, I still say this race should have been for the Democrats to win.
The Arcata race is one that is really too close to call. Machi is a good incumbent so he is electable. Micheal Winkler and Shane have good campaigns going and should make it on the board. Susan Ornelas is the trump card. She is a Republican in "progressive" clothing. All 4 of these candidates have knocked Arcata doors senseless.
In the Water District 1 race, Kaitlin should win overwhelmingly unless I have missed something.
In the Water District 2 race, I predict that the Democrats will garner 58% of the votes. Bad news is that 3 candidates will split those votes and hand the seat over to Shepherd. The HCDCC just could not come to consensus on this race. Maybe our bad.
In the Water District 3 race, the HCDCC may have been hasty on giving an endorsement without qualifying the candidate’s campaign committee.
Yes, the HCDCC could have rough local election results. Or maybe I will be wrong.
10:11am-Yes. In Eureka city council race.
Do you know any of the polling numbers for Eureka Richard? Are your predictions for Eureka based at all on these numbers?
Thanks!
Jager quit the job once, as did our mayor. I don't vote for quitters. Polly seems like a nice enough person, but after seeing her KINS interview on the local access channel, I must say that she seems like an airhead that just doeesn't have a clue. I'm voting for Adkins. Clark is flaky, and that is why Jager will win. Even though I'm not voting for Jager, I just can't bring myself to vote for Clark. Question: Is Polly Jack MacDonald's daughter?
A question for 2:47: does this make Barack Obama a "quitter" as he might be leaving the Senate seat he was elected?
"Polly seems to have spent/wasted many of thousands of dollars on unnecessary multi-mailers and way too much in Newspaper ads. But just the shear volume of literature, and close North Coast ties will lead Polly to be elected."
You contradict yourself Richard. First you say the race between Polly and Linda will be "close", but then you deride the advertising Polly has spent campaign dollars on as "wasted".
You also attribute the "shear volume of literature" as a factor in your projected victory for Polly.
So how is it "wasted"?
I along with you, wish we could go back to the good old days where people did not have to shell out tens of thousands of dollars in a quest for a seat on the Eureka City Council, but sadly I believe those days are gone.
Richard seems to like Democrats, except when it comes to Eureka, where he backs fringe Green Kaitlin against the Democrat in the race.
I'll have to remember this next time Richard runs against Bonnie Neely.
11:22am-Yes.
3:47pm-In the last two days I have heard of one household with one Demo and one Rep received 7 mailers from Polly! Today I heard from a couple on the HCDCC that they had received 4 from Polly! That is 11 mailers for most likely 1 vote out of 4. Not good money spent.
Richard, I lost your email so I am posting a link here for any of Evergreen they may look to leave Humboldt.
http://portland.craigslist.org/clc/mnu/901143863.html
Richard,
Congratulations you have just become one more in a long line of people (right middle and left) who have received (political) threats from the moronic and abusive Stephen Daivies camp.
No more time to promote your candidate, eh, 4:53? Just go right to the threats.
Daivies is no Democrat. Everyone knows that. He is a Green.
That is the real starting point to evaluate this contest.
"I hope for Estelle."
Your hopes my well be realized. While you think that her campaign has leveled off, she has been out knocking on doors and making many converts. Her campaign is doing great!
I think for the sake of the election the two "spoilers" Clif and Johanna should drop out.
Estelle's campaign has gained so much more support since the june election. And yes from Republicans as well as Dems.
Look at her endorsement list.
Plus her image is everywhere on TV and radio. She is definitely closing in .
write in's are rarely successful
there will be only two names on the ballot
and there will be a much higher turnout for the Dems which favors Estelle the endorsed Dem.
Her campaign is full tilt boogie heading for the finish line.
Presidential candidates are typically already governors or senators when they run for president. That's how its traditionally done and we seem to have come to accept that as a society.
I think that's a little different than a city councilperson quitting halfway through a term to become mayor, or coroner, or some other elected office within the same community.
I wasn't sorry to see Frank or Virginia leave office, as I hadn't voted for either of them, but I don't think they should get to hand pick their successors.
Does that answer your question 3:02?
I think you're right Richard.....on most points.
I do think there will be a larger vote split in the 2nd. I still have Clif winning. 38, Johanna 36 and Fennel 26.
In Eureka, Despite all the hyperbole, Atkins has little to work with....but she does have some good ideas. Her curse will be Clark. Anybody who knows George knows that he is an articulate zealot who hasn't really accomplished anything. Endert wins at about your margin and Clark tanks with about a 13-15 point spread. His outside handler nor George for that matter understand that there is a huge crossover potential in a smaller town race and name recognition/reputation mean a great deal. George is a court jester...glib, but a joke nonetheless. Make it Jager 58 Clark 42
I really think Linda has a future as an involved leader. She just needs some seasoning and a few more community involvements to make her truly competitive. Oh...and she need to run her own campaign and be independent of the Pierson 'machine' and demonstrate some broadbased support.
Two PBR's says that she (Linda) gets more votes than George by a factor of at least 9. What is weird about that is that she is an unknown and George is well known
You on?
Amazing.
Horrific personal attacks are made against Stephen Davies all day, every day for the last two weeks on Heraldo's blog, and any attempts at responding as of late are deleted and blocked. That's "fairness" to those DUHCs.
And now the supporters of Davies are the ones threatening people when they're the ones being attacked?
The Kaitlin Sopoci-Belknap machine is the one that should be embarrassed that they have nothing to say on behalf of their own candidates' expertise in environmental science or law (none) and thus resort to scurrilous and false attacks on Davies' legal work.
One would have thought these so-called liberals would have the least bit respect for somebody who donated countless hours of his time to suing Pacific Lumber and Rodoni, but that's the fake left for you around here, no good deed goes unpunished if you step out of line and run for office against someone who props up their corrupt little control PAC (Local Solutions).
Just for the record, I have supported many candidates from all over the partisan landscape. I do not personally know Stephen Davies. I do know he is not Democrat in a real sense. He came to one of our HCDCC meetings and said he registered Democrat to garner our endorsement. He also would not make a promise that he would not register as a Green later or other. I will have to admire his honesty, but that put the HCDCC in a awkward position. If he comes back in a few years, this might turn out different. For now, Kaitlan is the best by far. Sorry Stephen.
Heraldo censoring comments? Say it ain't so!
As a note 8:24 –
"...Frank or Virginia, but I don't think they should get to hand pick their successors."
Neither Frank Jager nor Virginia Bass "hand -picked" their successors.
The City of Eureka charter states in case of a vacancy of office, the Mayor will appoint a new City Council member WITH the majority approval of the Eureka City Council.
Don't be fooled 7:48. They were hand picked.
That may be true 9:09 AM, however please keep in mind that in the case of Polly Endert it was a unanimous City Council vote.
That meant that both Chris Kerrigan and Larry Glass voted to appoint Polly Endert to Eureka City Council.
I think you're reading too much into this.
It's a thankless job that pays a whopping $500 per month (gross).
So after taxes a Eureka City Council person is taking home around $350 to put up with anonymous blogger abuse.
Gutsy calls, Richard. I think you're right on all except the 2nd District supervisor race. In a stunning move, Johanna will defy the write-in Gods and win it 38%. Clif will get 35% and Estelle will trail at 27%
I've wonder how much the unpopularity of G.W. Bush and his being Republican will "trickle down" in the Eureka races? Clearly Richard, you're predicting not very much.
As a young person in S.F., I thought it inevitable that working people in a port town, especially union ones, were solid Democrats.
Maybe I should have reasoned that it's only in coastal cities with lots of commerce and high acceptance of ethnic diversity where the working people are solid Democrats.
To the fellow talking about "hand picking their successor".
Uh, let's see, Chris Kerrigan is not only managing but also being paid by the Clark/Atkins campaign.
Guess that's not the same thing as "picking your successor" since it applies to Democrats.
I think Chris importing an out of state guy to help shows just how ethical he is.
The voters are not as stupid as some of you lock step Democrats think.
It doesn't matter what party they are registered in, it does matter if they are decent, viable candidates.
Get a clue, this isn't about Republicans vs. Democrats, this is about Jager and McDonald who are actually credible compared to the lockstep thinking created by that genius, Kerrigan.
How many campaigns has he been paid to run and how many has he helped his candidate to win?
I think that would be one out of 5 if you're keeping track. Maybe two out of six, but I don't remember him being in charge of Glass's campaign.
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